US election polls: Who is ahead – Harris or Trump? rephrase
On November 5, U.S. voters will head to the polls to elect their next president. Initially, the election was expected to be a rematch of 2020, but things took a turn in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.
The big question now is whether the outcome will lead to a second term for Donald Trump or the historic election of Kamala Harris as the first woman president of the United States.
As election day approaches, we’ll be closely monitoring the polls to assess how major events, like Tuesday’s presidential debate, impact the race for the White House.
What do the polls indicate about the debate winner?
More than 67 million viewers watched Harris and Trump face off in a debate in Pennsylvania on Tuesday night. According to the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher, the Democrat appeared to come out on top in the heated exchange. But what do the polls say?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,400 registered voters who had heard at least some information about the debate found that 53% believed Harris won, while 24% thought Trump did. The poll also indicated that Harris had a five-point lead over Trump nationally, with 47% to 42%, up from 45% to 41% in August.
Similarly, a YouGov poll of 1,400 U.S. adults found that 55% of those who watched the debate thought Harris won, compared to 25% for Trump. However, it showed no change in voting intentions, with Harris maintaining the same narrow lead of 46% to 45% as before the debate.
A Morning Consult poll of 3,300 likely voters also showed no significant gain for Harris, with her lead at 50% to 45%, though Trump was down one point from 46% in their previous poll before the debate.
Overall, the current data suggests that while most debate viewers felt Harris performed better, her success may not necessarily convert into votes, as many Americans have already made up their minds about how they will vote.
Analysis by Anthony Zurcher: Who won the Harris-Trump debate?
Watch key moments from the Harris-Trump clash.
Who is leading in national polls?
Before Biden dropped out, polls consistently showed him trailing Trump. Though these scenarios were hypothetical, many polls suggested Harris might not fare much better.
However, after Harris began campaigning, the race tightened, and she established a small lead over Trump in the average of national polls—a lead she has maintained since. The latest national polling averages for both candidates, rounded to the nearest whole number, are shown below.
In the poll tracker chart, the trend lines depict how these averages have evolved since Harris entered the race, with dots representing the spread of individual poll results.
Harris peaked at 47% during her party’s four-day convention in Chicago, which she concluded on August 22 with a speech promising a “new way forward” for all Americans. Her numbers have remained relatively stable since then.
Trump’s average has also stayed steady, hovering around 44%, with no significant boost following Robert F. Kennedy’s endorsement after he ended his independent candidacy on August 23.
While national polls provide a general indication of a candidate’s popularity across the country, they may not accurately predict the election outcome. This is because the U.S. uses an electoral college system to elect its president, meaning the overall vote count can be less important than where those votes are won.
Though there are 50 states in the U.S., most consistently vote for the same party. In reality, only a handful of states, known as battleground states, are competitive for both candidates. These states will determine the election’s outcome.
What is the electoral college?
Who is ahead in battleground states?
Currently, the polls are extremely close in the seven battleground states, making it challenging to determine who is leading the race. With fewer state polls than national ones, we have limited data, and every poll carries a margin of error, indicating that the actual numbers could be higher or lower.
As it stands, recent polls suggest a margin of less than one percentage point separating the candidates in several states. This includes Pennsylvania, which is crucial due to its high number of electoral votes, making it easier for the winner to reach the 270 electoral votes needed.
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin had long been Democratic strongholds before Trump flipped them in 2016 to win the presidency. Biden regained them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she could be on track to win the election.
Reflecting the shift since Harris became the Democratic nominee, on the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these seven battleground states.
How are these averages calculated?
The figures used in the graphics above are averages generated by the polling analysis website 538, which is affiliated with the American news network ABC News. 538 aggregates data from individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by various polling organizations.
As part of their quality control, 538 only includes polls from organizations that meet specific standards, such as transparency about the number of respondents, the timing of the poll, and the methodology used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc.).
Can the polls be trusted?
At the moment, the polls suggest Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are within a few percentage points of each other, both nationally and in battleground states. When a race is this close, it’s tough to predict a winner.
Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling organizations are attempting to address this issue through various adjustments to ensure their results better reflect the makeup of the voting population.
However, these adjustments are challenging to perfect, and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about factors such as who will turn out to vote on November 5.
Written and produced by Mike Hills and Libby Rogers. Design by Joy Roxas.
Rephrase: Raisa Bajrami
